Internet demand still growing faster than capacity 8 December, 2008 By Chris Talbot

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The report, "Internet Interrupted: Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture the 'Net," is a follow-up to last year's study, "The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web." As with findings from 2007, the latest research shows an increasing strain on the Internet's infrastructure. By 2012, the infrastructure may not be able to accommodate the usage, resulting in Internet brownouts.

The Internet exaflood, as Nemertes called it, is an exponential explosion of online content, resulting largely from new applications, video and increasingly heavy Web use. It's causing slower responses and time-outs, and it may trigger an "innovation slowdown." If the problem isn't addressed, the development of next-generation applications will be stifled, and users will find the infrastructure incapable of efficiently delivering the content.

"We still project demand to exceed capacity at the access layer of the Internet by 2012, and the situation is slightly worse than we originally projected in North America," said Dr. Mike Jude, senior analyst at Nemertes Research, in a statement.

To bridge the gap between demand and capacity, there needs to be a financial investment made that is valued at between $42 billion and $55 billion (U.S.) in the U.S., which must primarily be spent on broadband access capabilities. Global invest will need to be approximately $137 billion, according to the study.

"The exponential explosion of content will persist during challenging economic times, but a prolonged global recession could starve networks of the necessary capital investment," said Bruce Mehlman, co-chair of Internet Innovation Alliance, in a statement. "It's more important than ever to develop a national broadband strategy that will encourage investment and innovations that accelerate America's global competitiveness and address major national challenges, such as energy efficiency, health care cost and quality educational opportunity."