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My Predictions for the IT Channel in 2010 
20 December, 2009 By Robert M. Cohen |

About this time every year I like to give my predictions for the upcoming year. Good, bad or indifferent. It makes me think about what is going on and where the industry is going. This year, I get to cheat, having had the luxury of interviewing many of the best people in the channel for my On The Record Column (I really enjoy writing this column). First some of my best and worse predictions:
* In the early 1990s I bought into the promises of computers and communications, plug n play technology, a paperless office and computers resulting in more free time for all of us -- WRONG (I was young and naïve)!
* In 1995 I predicted that Apple would be gone within six months -- WRONG!
* When Compaq pulled out of Comdex I predicted that Comdex's days were numbered -- RIGHT (but it took a few years)!
* When Louis V. Gerstner retired as CEO of IBM in March 2002, I predicted that IBM would sell off their personal computing business and focus more and more on services -- RIGHT (that was an easy one to see coming)!
* I predicted that Sun would buy Compaq and was in the middle of writing an article about why this should happen -- when HP came along and bought Compaq -- RIGHT IDEA, WRONG BUYER!
* In 2005 when Carly Fiorina and HP went their separate ways, I predicted that HP would scale down and become a very profitable printer company -- WRONG (never thought Mark Hurd would be capable of turning around the beast & hats off to him and the team he built)!
* Last year I predicted that the focus on managed services would drive many of the best VARs forward while many of the weaker, product focused VARs would leave the industry-- RIGHT.
What s In Store For The North American Channel In 2010?
* The SMB market will rule. The stimulus programs will finally put into high gear about half a trillion dollars flowing through the channel. Mid size and large enterprises will continue to cut IT budgets and negotiate away margins. Vendors will have to increase their focus on business solutions for SMBs.
* Resellers will take courses and become more business focused. To be successful, resellers will need to run their own business more like a business than a hobby. Large margins on hardware and software are a thing of the past. Moreover, with SMBs asking for business solutions and vendors promising more business solutions for SMBs, resellers will need to understand business basics and be able to provide value to SMBs looking for business solutions.
* More resellers will focus attention on services. 2010 will be all about migration to the cloud, SaaS models and managed services. However, I predict that the successful resellers will continue to sell low margin hardware and software so that they can provide their customers a full solution, and thus not open the door for their competitors to come in.
* Resellers will automate their product sales and marketing processes. With a leaner staff, resellers will need to rely on web catalogs and/or eCommerce engines to help facilitate hardware and boxed software products. As well, they will need a powerful, automated marketing engine that will allow them to reach their customers and prospects on a very regular basis -- and that will keep their customers informed about the growing number of IT-focused business solutions for SMBs. See the video: http://www.businessnetwork.com/emarketing/
* Vendors will need to find better ways to reach SMBs via their reseller partners. In 90% of all IT purchases in the SMB market, the SMB consults their reseller for advice. Once given, 90% of the time the SMB customer accepts the resellers advise verbatim. Thus the best way for vendors to persuade SMBs to purchase their products is by getting their reseller partners to tell their customers and prospects about the products and solutions they provide. See the video: http://www.businessnetwork.com/vendor/video/tba/free-offer.html
* Distributors will get more involved with bundling products into solutions, datacenters, hosting and services. They already provide the components required for most of these items. They have the relationships with the resellers and vendors and they offer the: pick, pack, and ship; credit facilitation; marketing; education; etc. It is a natural progression.
* A new breed of resellers will emerge. The super resellers will be business people who will provide IT-focused consulting and implementation, service and support for related business solutions. They will be true Trusted Business Advisors. The model will be based on surrounding themselves with great tech people -- most of whom will have one or two specialty areas. Most of these new models will be small companies (many one man shops) who use freelancers for tech service and support. The larger resellers using this model will have full time employees for the services they provide most often and then use freelancers for the rest. The beauty of this model is that they are providing the same type of services for SMBs as Accenture, IBM Global Services and other mammoth consulting companies are providing for the mid and large size companies -- and it then takes it one step further by doing the product acquisition, implementation, training, service and on-going support. The resellers of tomorrow will run a lean, scalable program that will provide the SMBs the business solutions they want and will work with the vendors to sell the business solutions they provide.
With the overall focus shifting more and more to IT-centric solutions for SMBs, the business oriented resellers (Trusted Business Advisors) will quietly rule the IT industry as they use business knowledge coupled with technology know how and local presence to put the "V" back into value!
* Vendors are not capable of, nor can they afford to, provide complete solutions for SMBs.
* Distributors can provide all the ingredients necessary to put together a solution, but they do not have the feet on the street or the relationships with the SMBs, that are required in order to sell, implement, service and support the on-going daily requirements of the 10 million plus SMBs in North America.
* Trusted Business Advisors are the only ones who can provide complete solutions and keep these solutions running.
These are my predictions. I hope you will find some time to let me know what you think!
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Robert Cohen, a passionate and enthusiastic channel advocate, is the founder of the ChannelLine Advisory Council as well as president and business editor of Integrated mar.com, publishers of Channel Advisor, eChannelLine and ConnectIT. Since 1980 he has worked with 350 IT vendors, distributors and resellers in developing and implementing strategic go-to-market programs, using a variety of direct, channel and hybrid models. Integrated mar.com, in conjunction with Robert has created the Trusted Business Advisor program. Robert can be reached at 1-800-465-2059 o
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